How Neuralink Will Change Humanity..

Today, we’re taking a closer look at Elon Musk’s Neuralink brain implant company and what it means for the world going forward. Could it be a cure for blindness, paralysis, deafness, and mental illness? Is it just a Fitbit in your skull? Let’s have a look at where this new generation of technology is leading us, some practical implications, and how you build a business around brain implants. Disclaimer off the top, I’m nowhere near a medical expert, everything in this video is based on speculation and do not take my advice on whether or not you should get a brain implant.

So, out of all the companies that Elon Musk has his hand in, Neuralink is easily the most abstract and difficult to understand. There have been a lot of claims and theories made on what this kind of a device could do, but so far, in real life, we haven’t seen it do much of anything. The Neuralink is in a very niche category of technology called Brain Computer Interface, or BCI. It’s not new technology by any means, scientists have been sticking probes into people’s brains for decades. What sets Neuralink apart right now from the rest of the BCI industry is that they are making a product with mass market appeal, the device is being positioned as something that everyone would want to have, not just those that are suffering from a disability or injury. Which is impressive, considering that a Neuralink is an invasive BCI, which means it is actually physically connected into the user’s brain. There are also non invasive and partially invasive devices available on the market, but they don’t work anywhere near as well. You’ve probably seen the non invasive devices, they kind of look like a weird hat with sensors all over, those can read your brain waves, but without very much clarity. Imagine there’s a rock concert happening inside an arena and you’re standing across the street, you’d get enough of the sound to recognize that music was being played in there, but you might not be able to recognize the song. Moving to an invasive BCI is like sitting in the front row at the concert, all the nuances of the performance are coming in loud and clear.

So far the problem with these invasive BCI devices is that it literally takes brain surgery to install, and that’s unsurprisingly been a limiting factor in their adoption rate. The Neuralink business model hinges on their device being implanted by an automated robot surgeon that in theory, would make the procedure as easy and commonplace as getting laser eye surgery. And with that, they could roll this out to thousands, maybe even millions of people. It would be the first ever implantable consumer electronic device. And that’s why Neuralink will probably succeed with their business plan.

So, with that in mind, let’s take a look at what this thing could actually do and why you might want to get one.

Cost

The comparison between Neuralink and laser eye surgery is going to come up a lot, and that’s because Neuralink is basically following the exact same business model that was set out by LASIK. And Elon has said that in time he expects the price of a Neuralink installation to be pretty much equivalent to the laser eye procedure. 

Obviously, we’re talking about a time far down the road. First the Neuralink has to go through years of clinical trials before it can hit the market, and then the early adopters are going to have to pay a premium to be first in line. But eventually, if all goes to plan, the price for a neuralink installation should be right around 5 thousand dollars in the US. The cost of the device should be pretty minimal, especially as technology progresses over the years, and as Elon says, it’s basically just a smart watch with tiny wire probes. So a few hundred dollars for the hardware cost.

It’s not cheap, but it would be in a price bracket that many people could afford if they really thought it was worthwhile. Which brings us to the next point, what exactly is this thing going to do?

What will a Nuralink do?

This is where things start to get a bit dicey. Because Elon and his team have been making all kinds of claims about what this technology has the potential to accomplish. We’ve heard everything from reversing spinal cord injuries, to healing brain diseases like Parkinson’s, curing mental illness, even granting digital immortality. 

Following the Neuralink presentation last August where a lot of these claims were made, the MIT Technology Review published an article titled, Elon Musk’s Neuralink is neuroscience theater. MIT pulled in a lot of reality checks for the Neuralink concept, pointing out that many of these problems might simply be impossible to solve, even with the best technology. For example, if we’re going to cure an illness like depression by adjusting the inner function of someone’s brain, then we would first need to understand exactly what electrochemical imbalances cause that depression in the first place. It’s like even if you had a garage full of amazing tools, if you don’t understand how a car works, you’d never be able to fix it.

So the Neuralink might be oversold as the miracle solution to humanity’s problems. But that doesn’t mean it can’t be incredibly useful.

Brain Controlled Computer

One thing that we know is possible with invasive BCI is the ability to control a computer or electronic device with brain waves alone. This research was pioneered at Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island, in 2004 with a project called BrainGate. In late 2018, BrainGate researchers demonstrated that they could enable people with ALS, also known as Lou Gehrig’s disease, to control an iPad simply with their thoughts.

That’s the first step that Neuralink is expected to take, and would be a huge step forward in the quality of life for people who suffer from paralysis. They could communicate and express themselves effortlessly, they could read, browse the web or even create artwork just with their mind.

Going beyond just controlling a tablet, using the same process a Neuralink could control a prosthetic device. There is precedent for this technology as well. In most cases the paralysis is caused by a broken connection between the brain and the muscles, so we could bypass that broken link to get signal from the mind to the muscle. It absolutely is possible for people to regain the use of a paralyzed limb by having an external device that fires electrical signals straight into their muscles. A research project at the University of Miami Miller School of Medicine was able to link electrodes in a patient's brain with a prosthetic device attached to his forearm. The Patient, German Aldana who was paralyzed in a car crash, was then able to use his hand to grab simple objects again, he could feed himself and even write with a pencil. The neural implants send signals to a computer, which then interprets those patterns and transfers signal to the prosthetic to fire different muscle groups. So Neuralink alone could not heal a paralyzed limb, but Neuralink in combination with an intramuscular implant absolutely could do that in the near future. Or in the case of an amputation, you could have Neuralink sending brain impulses straight into a robotic limb and having it function perfectly. Think like in Star Wars when somebody gets a hand sliced off by a lightsaber, they just slap a new robot hand on there and you’re good to go.

Now what if we go the other way, and feed information from an external source into the Neuralink and then into the brain? Maybe a digital camera could become a person’s eyes. Maybe a microphone could become their ears.

There are already patients with disabilities who are willing and eager to start testing this out for themselves. These people will be the first wave of human trials and Elon is hoping to have that stage begin this year, in 2021. Not only will these trials be examining the efficacy of the Neuralink technology, but we’ll also be seeing consequences of leaving these electrode threads implanted in the brain for the long term. No one is really sure about factors like physical rejection or corrosion, we just have to do it and hope for the best.

So, if after years of clinical trials, the Neuralink is found to be safe and effective, then what? Well for the people suffering from the disabilities that we mentioned earlier, this will be a game changer. They can go to any hospital or clinic that has a Neuralink surgical robot and have the whole procedure done within a single day.

And once there are enough Neuralinks and installation robots to go around and everyone who genuinely needs one has had the opportunity to get it, then what about the rest of us? In theory, any person could go ahead and get a Neuralink implanted and start interfacing directly with their smartphone and computer with just thought alone. And that’s kind of where Elon is hoping to go with this. The way he sees it, we’ve already become part cyborg as it is with our use of devices like iPhones and smart watches. Neuralink would simply increase the bandwidth of that connection by a huge factor, you wouldn’t be limited by the dexterity of your fingers, we’d just be going straight from mind to device and back again.

And that’s where things really start to get fun. Imagine virtual reality gaming with no physical controller necessary, your character in the game operating straight off signals in your own mind. Ready Player One coming true in real life. Or what about as a media player, would we even need screens and speakers if that could all be fed into our Neuralink and then straight into the brain? Could a Neuralink copy all of the patterns and nuances that make your brain unique and then reproduce that information in a new location? It’s freaking trippy to think about. 

The Business Model

The fact that Neuralink is already being thought of as not just a medical device, but more of a consumer electronic is the reason why this company will probably succeed if they can just figure out the logistic side of things. Like we said earlier, Neuralink didn’t really invent any new technology, but they have figured out how to package it into a business that could succeed in a capitalist society. And that’s where everyone else has failed so far. We could go back to the 90’s and look at a product called the Free Hand system from a company called Neuro Control. That was an implant that allowed people with a certain kind of paralysis to regain the use of their arm. Free Hand didn’t connect directly into the brain, it used a sensor that was placed higher up on the body where the muscles were still active. Most patients had a stimulator placed on their shoulder where if they shrugged a certain way, it would send signals through wires into their arm and activate muscles in the hand. It was far from perfect and the system was pretty clunky, but for the 90’s it was amazing technology. And if the Freehand had been able to continue development through to the present day, they would probably be miles ahead of Neuralink. But that never happened. Even though the product was working just fine, the company ended the Free Hand program and basically left hundreds of people with implants in their bodies and no technical support. And the reason for all that comes down to money, unfortunately. Free Hand was very expensive, around 60,000 dollars at the time for the device and the surgery and it wasn’t covered by medical insurance in the US. So the company only ended up selling a few dozen implants per year, well short of the volume they would have needed to turn a profit. Once their investors realized there would be no growth or returns, they pulled out.

And that’s why Neuralink has a unique opportunity here, they’re combining an affordable procedure with a multi use device that can be anything from a toy to a life saving necessity. If everything goes according to plan they could be selling thousands of implants every year, that could grow to millions per year. We could come to a point in the future where brain implants are as common as smartphones are now. And then there is a whole business to build on selling different apps and firmware updates to use with your Neuralink. This is the kind of company that people will be clamouring over themselves to buy shares in. 

The prospect of brain surgery becoming commonplace obviously sounds a bit strange at first. But coming back to laser eye surgery, that was pretty scary when it was first introduced - a robot laser burning into your eyeball and reshaping the inside. But 30 years later it’s a pretty regular procedure, it’s a luxury for sure, not cheap, but not unusual either. I can see brain implants following a similar path to mainstream acceptance. And again, we’re talking about something that anyone can use, not just people with certain medical conditions, literally anyone could get a Neuralink if they had the cash and the desire.