Elon Musk Announces New Master Plan!
In today’s post we have a major update on the orbital Starship launch, Elon Musk teases his Master Plan Part 3, The Boring Company is heading for Texas and Tesla’s insurance program has expanded again in the United States. So let’s get going.
Elon Musk Teases Master Plan Part 3
Elon Musk has been teasing the release of Tesla’s Master Plan Part 3 and it’s already shaping up to be his most ambitious yet.
This time around, Elon’s Master Plan would not only be focused on Tesla but will include his other business ventures, such as SpaceX and The Boring Company to create one grand vision and unified goal - at least that’s what he's been saying on Twitter lately.
On March 21st, Elon said that the main subject of the new initiative for Tesla involves ramping the electric vehicle and energy storage company to “extreme size.” Musk also specifically mentioned the company’s AI projects, hinting further at the idea of Tesla becoming a company focused on artificial intelligence.
If we remember back to the initial master plan, that one was pretty simple - to build and sell a limited edition sports car that would fund the design and mass production of a luxury car that would fund the design and high volume production of a less expensive car. And Tesla achieved that goal by following the roadmap of the Roadster release in 2008, then the Model S in 2012 and then the Model 3 in 2017, which at the time could be had for as little as $35,000 USD.
Elon said in 2016, “The reason we had to start off with step 1 was that it was all I could afford to do with what I made from PayPal. I thought our chances of success were so low that I didn't want to risk anyone's funds in the beginning but my own.”
Master Plan Part 2 or Part Deux as Elon called it on the Tesla Website was a little more tricky. And they actually haven’t even completed Part 2 yet.
The first point was to integrate energy generation and storage - that was the solar roof and Powerwall battery. Tesla did accomplish this, though obviously not as smoothly or at the high volume that would have been hoped for by now.
Next was to expand to cover the major forms of terrestrial transportation - Meaning have a vehicle in every segment. That also hasn’t quite happened yet. The Tesla Semi is a big part of this and it seems very close to rollout, but it’s not there yet for whatever reason. Cybertruck, same deal, close, but not there. And what we still have yet to see at all is the Tesla version of a high-passenger density urban transport, that was specifically mentioned in Part Deux and never again since.
The third point of Part Two was autonomy - Again, we’re getting pretty close but not quite there yet.
And lastly, Elon mentioned ‘sharing’ in his second plan - That is the Robo Taxi network, the idea of shifting cars away from being viewed as personal property to seeing autonomous cars as a service that we order through our phone whenever needed. This one is not even close. Great idea, but not happening any time soon.
So, Master Plan Part 3 has a lot to live up to. Not only does it need to set a new direction for Tesla, a ‘post-car’ future if you will. Part three is also going to have to deal with the shortcomings of part two and how these problems will be fixed moving forward.
Anyway, don’t want to speculate too much on that one, just waiting to see what Elon has on his mind.
Major Update on Starship Orbital Launch
Elon Musk has confirmed some very interesting new details on the first Starship orbital launch with a new mission timeframe.
On March 21st, Elon announced via Twitter that the “First Starship orbital flight will be with Raptor 2 engines, as they are much more capable & reliable.” Elon noted that the version two engines is running at 230 tons or 500,000 lbs of thrust at sea level. He continued by saying, “We’ll have 39 flightworthy engines built by next month, then another month to integrate, so hopefully in May for orbital flight test.”
This is a pretty big deal, as we had so far been promised that the first orbital attempt would be with Super Heavy Booster number 4 and Ship number 20 - something that Elon has always claimed to be purely coincidence. And as fitting as that combination would have been, it seems these rocket stages will not be leaving the Earth. That’s not a huge surprise, ship and booster 4/20 were built back in the summer of 2021and have been used extensively for a wide range of tests from static fires, to cryo proofing, to full stack fitting tests and even the first use of the launch tower chopstick arm to lift the ship into place.
Last week we saw Ship number 20 again lifted into the air by the Mechazilla launch tower and placed on top of Super heavy Booster number 4. SpaceX used this occasion to conduct a full stack cryo proofing test for the 4/20 rocket. We’ve seen both stages undergo several cryogenic tests on their own, but this was the first time we’ve seen them tested while integrated.
This time the full-stack is likely to test the “Stage Zero” launch tower and mount systems for loading cryogenic fluids into Ship 20 via the Ship Quick Disconnect plumbing, which will be a new first for the launch tower.
So, 4 and 20 absolutely served a noble purpose in the history of the Starship, they just won’t be the first to reach space.
A new pair of rockets outfitted with the Raptor 2 engine will be launching to orbit, and now we know the timeline for that is eyeing up May for the big test. This will probably mean that the chances of the ship and booster making it all the way into orbit and back down again for a water landing will be much higher than originally thought. Elon was always pretty quick to say that the first orbital flight of Starship would probably fail spectacularly - and with the 4/20 combo that probably was true. But with the new engines, which Elon calls ‘much more reliable’ and the new design iterations of both the ship and booster, we might have a significantly higher probability of success.
SpaceX have been hard at work constructing new Starship prototypes, right now they are building Booster number 8 and Ship number 24, so it’s very possible that these will be our new Orbital launch candidates. We know that the new version of the Booster, beginning with number 7, is set up for 33 Raptor engines over the 29 that are mounted to Booster 4. And we’ve seen ship number 24 being fitted with a payload release door, which is a Starship first. So this new up and coming Starship will be significantly more advanced than 4/20.
We are still hoping that the FAA environmental approval of Starbase for orbital launches comes through on March 28th as expected. It’s hard to say, we haven’t really heard any news either way. But from what Elon is saying, as long as it happens before the end of May, everything is going to be just fine.
Boring Company Coming to Texas?
The Boring Company has begun negotiations with the Alamo Regional Mobility Authority in San Antonio Texas, after board members voted to conduct a feasibility study into a new tunneling project.
The Boring Company was one of two finalists for the San Antonio transportation project. According to the San Antonio Express News, the other company bidding for the project was Bexar Automated Transport, which proposed an electric bus system that would travel through elevated and underground tracks.
The Boring Company’s proposal called for twin underground tunnels that Tesla vehicles could pass through, transporting riders between the San Antonio International Airport and downtown.
Both companies presented their proposals to the Alamo RMA, with the decision to move forward seeming to depend mostly on finances. We know that The Boring Company is able to pitch their service at a much lower rate than traditional transit infrastructure due to the massively efficient PrufRock boring machine and their Tesla based, all electric transit.
Alamo Regional Board Chair Mike Lynd said of the project, “The Board has continually sought innovative ways to finance transportation projects to ensure a bright future for the community in a way that bridges technology and accelerates the delivery of needed projects. Today’s Board action is the first of many discussions towards relieving congestion instead of waiting years.”
The Boring Company estimated that the San Antonio Loop project would cost from 247 to 289 million dollars in total — although the company noted that these are “very rough” estimates — for a Loop between the airport and downtown. The board may still decide to add more stations in the future.
According to Bexar County Engineer Renee Green, The Boring Company believes it could start construction in 12 months and complete the first phase in 18 months. The company estimates that the entire twin tunnel system would be complete in 36 months.
Staff-written documents revealed that the company is willing to finance between 27 and 45 million dollars for the first phase. Before negotiations started, The Boring Company said it would self-finance the entire project and then turn it over to the Alamo RMA once the Loop was complete. This is the same kind of deal that they’ve made with Las Vegas, the Boring Company pays for all of the infrastructure up front, in exchange for a significant cut of the transit fees paid by customers - in the long run it should net them significantly more money.
Tesla Insurance Expands to Two New States
Tesla Insurance is about to expand in two more states, Oregon and Virginia, and the company will be underwriting the policies itself for the first time.
In October 2021, Tesla finally launched its new insurance product based on the safety score in Texas - this was their first expansion past California, although California never allowed the use of their Safety Score program. In December, the product arrived to users in Illinois and earlier this year, Tesla Insurance expanded to Arizona and Ohio – making it now available in five states with safety score active and one without, California.
Tesla says that it expects those deemed “average” drivers based on their safety score should save 20-40% on their insurance premium compared to competitors, and those with the safest scores could save between 30-60%.
This is a significant departure from the traditional model, which uses blanket indicators like age and gender to determine a driver’s level of safety.
Anyone who has tried to get in on the FSD Beta testing pool will be familiar with Tesla’s Safety Score App, it will basically monitor for any alarm bells like collision warnings or Autopilot disengagements and keep an eye on hard acceleration or braking events. Tesla considers a score of 98 to be the benchmark for entering FSD Beta, though Elon has said they can go as low as 95 if the software continues to improve.
