Tesla Space #56: Tesla's confidential trade secrets, you buyin' or what?

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X OF THE WEEK

Here comes your weekly motivational quote from Elon:

TESLA, GLOBALLY

Last week I asked if you’d join a Tesla Space paid membership if we’d create even more value for you with various resources. I fully expected most of you say “no” for various obvious reasons, and that’s perfectly fine, but the answers considering joining were actually remarkable (>10%)!

Thank you all for the replies, we got a lot of new thoughts to play with. I’ve already designed a kick-ass resource that some of you will love we’ll kick it off with - stay tuned for a launch in early 2025!

Welp, last week we were talking of $TSLA stock at $390/share range and $1.22T market cap.

We’ve blown right past that and hit the all-time highs, perhaps best shown through this post:

This means Tesla has crossed the $1.5 Trillion market cap.

What’s the next milestone… $690.42 per share? Not financial advice.
I guess Elon doesn’t need to say that with the litigation team he has built, so he comments: “At some point in the future, I think that will happen.”

New perk: Tesla is offering free lifetime Supercharging when you buy or lease a new Tesla Model S — on Dec 13th or after. Stackable with other promotions.

Meanwhile, Tesla increased the Model S AWD and Plaid prices by $5k in the US, which means the Model S, Model X and Cybertruck now all start at $79,900.

Elon, on the reports that he has backed away from his “climate crusade”:

“I’ve always felt that the climate predictions were too pessimistic and bound to backfire. Extreme environmentalists can’t say ridiculous things like the world is doomed in 5 years, because 5 years goes by, the world is ok and they lose credibility.

If we transition to primarily sustainable energy consumption (electric transport and heating) and production (mostly solar and fission) within 20 years or so, which is currently trending to happen, the world will be fine imo.”

Quick bites:

• Apparently, a German-Canadian resident of China was sentenced to 24 months in prison in the US for stealing trade secrets from Tesla for his competing EV battery business.
  “Klaus Pflugbeil, 59, pleaded guilty in June to conspiring with business partner Yilong Shao to sell Tesla’s battery manufacturing secrets to undercover FBI agents posing as Long Island businesspeople.”

• Love these headlines: “Swedish union pissed off because Tesla is still thriving despite strike: “It’s bullsh*t””

• New info nuggets on Tesla engineering coming in hot — Ryan Torres is hosting an in-person Q&A session with Wes Morrill, Siddhant Awasthi and Ari Naggar, at their new Tesla North Hollywood location. Tomorrow, 18th of Dec, you can join them if you RSVP here.

• On Tesla having talked about driving down the costs as fast as possible literally since 2006, Elon says: “Long-term thinking will be rewarded”

• The new Cyber themed showrooms are being opened across US, with a new Washington DC store in Georgetown now open:

• Tesla finally made cars fly! aka we have a new Tesla Merch drop with a levitating Cybertruck (sold out, of course):

“Collector’s edition 1:24 scale model of Cybertruck that floats above its base. Leave it motionless or make it rotate with a gentle tap. Features silver-coated detailing across the body, as well as functional headlights and taillights.“

Tesla’s limited-release Mezcal also came back on stock… briefly, on Dec 12th.

Hey perhaps one thing we could create is an actual real-time alert when any of the merch drops or is restocked. Would this interest you? Leave a note on the feedback poll if so.

VEHICLES

In case you saw any of the headlines on “Tesla Model Q confirmed” circulating all around the media (it even reached news in my little country called Estonia), it’s all bullsh*t in terms of being big breaking news.

Why? Well, it was all based on a report which was based on a Deutsche Bank report, which covered insights from Tesla head of IR Travis Axelrod visiting and talking on their Autonomous Driving Day.

Here’s what’s actually up and why it’s not newsworthy to us (but good to know since others read that media):

• The name Model Q was used by Deutsche Bank itself — so confirms nothing.

• Deutsche Bank says its launching in the first half of 2025 and it’ll cost less than $30k with subsidies — we knew that, as I reported to you on the Q3 shareholder deck literally detailing the same thing:
  

  

  And I already wrote to you Elon said exactly in the Q&A that the affordable upcoming model will be <$30k when taking the incentives into account.

• Deutsche Bank says it will be built on Tesla’s existing product lines — well, see the text from the shareholder deck above, saying that exact thing.

Oh sometimes it’s just fun to be so much ahead of the general public and media, isn’t it? 🙃 

Now, let’s take a look at our favorite renderer (is that a word?) and what his take on a Tesla Model Q — The Short One is:

Fast takes:

• Must watch video tip: This guy built a Mini Tesla Robovan from wood and it looks spectacular.

• Meanwhile, Tesla Model Y Juniper has been spotted again with camouflage here and there. If my estimations are correct, we’re only two weeks (not Elon’s two weeks) from this being unveiled.

• Tesla has introduced cheaper vinyl wraps for the Cybertruck, Model Y and Model 3, prices now $4k-$4.5k in the US.

• Tesla: “If you’re a parent, you will appreciate the fact that you can connect up to 2 pairs of headphones via Bluetooth to the rear display in our vehicles.”

• Refreshed Model 3 RWD gets 5-star efficiency rating from Green NCAP testing facilities, with an average 98% score.

• Cybertruck reportedly got MIIT approval in China so it can enter the market.

• Watch tip: Tesla has released a new video of Charlie Kuehmann, VP Materials Engineering at both SpaceX and Tesla, explaining why he upgraded to the new Model 3.

FSD & SOFTWARE

Something fun: BMW’s official X account answered “very impressive” under a FSD V13 video when called out, then deleted it.

As expected, it reached far further due to the Streisand effect and even Elon commented: “Too bad, that was one of their best posts!”

Tesla FSD V13.2.1 is now going wide to HW4 Tesla owners. HW3 owners will receive updated v12.6 in a couple weeks. Elon says it is a “gamechanger”.

Video: Google CEO Sundar Pichai answers the interviewer on who is the leader in self-driving space: "I think obviously Tesla is a leader in the space. It looks to me like Tesla and Waymo are the top two."

In case you’ve missed it, Waymo is owned by Google’s parent company, Alphabet.

Video: Tesla FSD 13.2 driving for 1 hour and 40 minutes through LA traffic with zero interventions.

Video: “FSD Supervised 13.2 reverses to exit parking spot blocked by delivery truck, then waits for oncoming traffic to clear before proceeding. This all happens implicitly within the model, which is trained on extensive data of similar real-world scenarios.”

In case you missed it, General Motors shut down its Cruise robotaxi efforts. Elon comments: “Achieving a general solution to autonomy is a very hard problem, especially doing so without making the car super expensive.”

SUPERCHARGING

Tesla opened its first Supercharger in Philippines. This is right in line with their first store opening in the country just a bit ago, much like we also saw in their expansion to Chile.

Max de Zegher of Tesla Supercharging team on the upcoming holiday travel:

“The next 2 weekends are busy. Forecasting 20+ GWh/day across North American, Asia Pacific and European Superchargers. We're prepared by scrubbing the network to be close to 100% uptime, deploying attendants and Tesla Megapack Chargers at our busiest sites, having our 24/7/365 Operations Center at Giga New York, and opening up new Superchargers still throughout the holidays.

If you ever have to wait, note that our models detect it, and those Superchargers become a top priority for everyone at Tesla Charging”

Max de Zegher also says they’re going for more pre-assembled Superchargers in Nordics (Europe):

“And pre-assembled Superchargers, which we’ll see more of in the Nordics. Another benefit from going with pre-assembled Superchargers is that we can keep building even in freezing temperatures.”

MUSKONOMY

Here are the most recent valuations of the Muskonomy:

• Tesla: ~$1.5 trillion

• SpaceX: $350 billion

• xAI: $50 billion

• X: $12 billion (via Fidelity)

• Neuralink: $8 billion

• The Boring Company: $7 billion

This brings the total to around 1,927 billion — or 1.927 Trillion — dollars. Naturally, this means Elon’s net worth is also at an all-time high, making him the first person in history to surpass the $400B mark.

Regarding SpaceX’s latest round $1.25B round, Elon says:

What’s really crazy about this is that almost no investors wanted to sell shares even at a $350B valuation! SpaceX reduced the amount of shares it bought back from employees in order to allow some new investors in.”

Lithium refining (yes)

Last week, Tesla fed raw material through their kiln of Tesla’s Lithium Refinery outside of Corpus Christi, TX for the very first time. “Increasing lithium refining capacity is critical to a sustainable energy economy.”

Optimus

POV: You’re visiting Neurips AI conference and spot something (…someone?)

Boring Company

just this: Inside the Cybertunnel at Giga Texas

And if you ever wondered how the entrance on the Giga Texas side looks like, here’s the (legendary) Steve Jurvetson just recently checking it out:

SpaceX

I present you Elon Musk, creator of cities: Boca Chica Beach will now likely become incorporated as the CITY of Starbase, Texas, and the location of SpaceX Headquarters!

Meanwhile, Starship stands ready for testing ahead of Flight 7:

(SpaceX’s) Starlink

Mobile goes live: T-Mobile opened registration for Starlink’s Direct-to-Cell satellite service beta launch.

Video: Here’s what the $199 Starlink backpack looks like unwrapped.

Starlink Mini is now available in Canada, and Starlink service is now live in 116 countries after adding Timor-Leste.

Neuralink

Elon comments on a longer analysis on Neuralink, saying it’s well articulated but edits/adds:

“Bit rate and patient number will increase hyperexponentially over the next 5+ years. My guess is combined I/O Bit rate > 1Mbs and augmented humans >1M by 2030.”