Tesla Reaches Million Milestone for 4680 Cell Production
Tesla’s Kato road facility in California has announced that they have produced their one-millionth 4680 battery cell in January.
The pilot production facility - intended to bridge the gap between now and when larger facilities can be constructed at locations like Giga Texas and Berlin - has been steadily ramping up production of the new battery since it’s unveiling in 2020, with the goal of producing 10GWh of cells. That’s more than other full-scale facilities, and their production yield is pretty solid:
1 Million Tesla 4680 🔋Batteries produced at the Kato Road facility waiting for the Giga Austin Model Y production to start according to TMC source 'Oliver's MX' (Jan 22nd)
— Alex (@alex_avoigt) February 13, 2022
The yield of 13 🔋 Production lines is approx 95%! 1 line in testing mode (Giga Austin)
🟢= good
🔴= bad pic.twitter.com/R2DeCUGp7e
But even a graph like the one above doesn’t really help us figure out Tesla’s 4680 battery production rate. At about 1,000 cells needed for each vehicle, a million cells is about enough for 1,000 Model Ys to be made. But the production rate at that factory should be hundreds of cars per day and that means they need to at least be making hundreds of thousands of cells per day as well. So where are they going to get the extra batteries?
Tesla has said previously that production of the 4680 cell wasn’t going to be a constraint on Model Y production. And even though we know the Berlin made Model Ys are going to use the previous generation cell for a bit, that still means Tesla will have to considerably ramp up battery production.
Of course, we know that new, tailor-made battery facilities are planned for several Gigafactory locations, but how is Tesla going to keep production going while they’re being built? Well, Tesla’s Senior Vice President of Engineering Drew Baglino might have an answer for us:
“Throughout 2021, we focused on growing cell supply alongside our in-house 4680 effort to provide us flexibility and insurance as we attempt to grow as fast as possible. As we sit today, sales from suppliers actually sort of exceeds our other factory-limiting constraints that you mentioned, Elon, in 2022. Or to say differently, 4680 cells are not a constraint to our 2022 volume plans, based on the information we have. But we are making meaningful progress on the ramp curve in Kato. We’re building 4680 structural packs every day, which are being assembled into vehicles in Texas. I was driving one yesterday and the day before. And we believe our first 4680 vehicles will be delivered this quarter.”
There’s no reason right now to believe that Tesla couldn’t ramp production of batteries exponentially as the need arises. It’s looking like the production of vehicles at Giga Texas will be off to a slow start and will ramp up some time later this year. Looking towards next year with high volume Y production and Cybertruck launch, it seems as though Tesla’s external suppliers will able to support the extra production in Texas while the 4680 manufacturing facilities are being built. We know for instance that Panasonic will be producing about 10GWh as early as 2023 - about enough for 150,000 cars. But there’s also reports of Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Bic batteries starting production on the new battery; as well as LG Energy reportedly readying to mass produce the cell at their Wucang plant.
So, with Tesla aiming to get production from Gigafactory Texas going by the end of the quarter, we’ll have our answers on production rates soon.